Selection Sunday is less than six weeks away, and the charge for March Madness is on. For the Sun Devils, that task is becoming more difficult by the day.
ASU holds a 12-9 overall record and 3-7 Big 12 record, placing them 13th in the conference as of Feb. 4. The team's NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) ranking, one of the metrics the selection committee uses to choose and seed teams, is 57th — 11 spots below the cutoff line.
The NET divides games into four quadrants. Quadrants 1 and 2 are the toughest games, with wins bulking a team's resume and losses not hurting too much. Quadrants 3 and 4 are must-win games for teams like ASU. Wins don't move the needle, and a loss in one of these quadrants can significantly tank their resume.
The Sun Devils remain in a position to reach the NCAA Tournament. That's in large part due to the success they had in the nonconference slate. November victories against Santa Clara, New Mexico and Saint Mary's have blossomed into impressive wins for ASU with the three teams' recent successes.
ASU also remains in position due to having zero quad three or four losses. So far, ASU has won the games it's supposed to.
READ MORE: ASU men's basketball finds its footing early in nonconference play
However, Big 12 play has been too much for the Sun Devils. The Big 12 provides many opportunities for resume-building wins, but ASU hasn't been able to capitalize halfway through the conference schedule. The Sun Devils have had 11 Quadrant 1 opportunities so far and won three, one of which came in the Big 12.
"A lot of these games have been close, but moral victories, who cares," said head coach Bobby Hurley following ASU's loss against UA on Feb. 1.
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The selection committee doesn't care about moral victories or how close someone is to beating a good team. It cares about wins and losses, and the Sun Devils haven't gotten over the hump. The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix, a conglomerate of bracketologists around the country, predicted ASU as the third team out of the tournament as of Feb. 4.
On ESPN's Joe Lunardi's Bracketology, he has the Sun Devils as the second team out. On CBS and Fox's versions, neither has ASU on the bubble. Time is ticking for ASU to pick up quality wins.
Up next for the Sun Devils is a Quadrant 3 game against Kansas State they can't afford to lose. For the rest of the regular season, four Quadrant 1 games remain and all are against top-20 teams.
Edited by Jack Barron, Sophia Braccio and Katrina Michalak.
Reach the reporter at jkmccar2@asu.edu and follow @jackmccarthyasu on X.
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Jack is a junior studying sports journalism with a minor in business. This is his first semester with The State Press. He has also worked at his high school paper.