Throughout the previous two seasons, the Sun Devils had combined a record of 6-18, went through a head coaching change and had multiple NCAA violations. It's safe to say things weren't looking bright in the Valley. Now, the Sun Devils are 11-2, Big 12 champions and have punched their ticket to the College Football Playoff.
Since its inception in 2014, the College Football Playoff format has always been one heck of a discussion. Up until this year, it consisted of four teams. Now, it sits at 12, consisting of five automatic bids granted to the highest-ranked conference champions and seven at-large bids to the rest of the awaiting teams.
Coming into the championship game on Saturday, the Sun Devils were in a win-and-in, lose-and-out situation. With the dominant win against Iowa State and how things are shaping out around the country, there's no certainty as to what seed they'll end up with.
With how the College Football Playoff Committee has been over the years, almost nothing is off the table. The committee's decision, which will come out Sunday, will determine when, who and where the Sun Devils will play next.
The possibilities
1-2 seed
This is nearly impossible. Oregon and Georgia are ranked too far ahead for ASU to jump them.
3 seed
With No. 8 SMU's loss, the window has opened for the Sun Devils, but Boise State stands in the way. The No. 10 Broncos' win over No. 20 UNLV in the Mountain West Championship looked to cement the Broncos into the top four, giving them the all-coveted first-round bye.
The Broncos sit at 12-1 with their lone loss being at now No. 1 Oregon. But, their strength of schedule isn't necessarily strong, and in the four weeks before their championship game, they've been in battles with subpar teams.
"Where I sit, there should be no comparison between (the Big 12) and any (Group of Five) champion," Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark said. "Strength of schedule matters."
The most important thing in the Broncos' favor is that they've won every single one of their games except Oregon. Oh, and they have a Heisman candidate in junior running back Ashton Jeanty.
The argument for ASU is one of their losses came without redshirt freshman quarterback Sam Leavitt. This ties the Florida State conversation in. If they undervalue backup quarterbacks, should the game not count toward their playoff resume? Head coach Kenny Dillingham believes so.
"Last year they kept Florida State out because their quarterback didn't play," Dillingham said in a post-game interview with ESPN per Big 12 Conference. "We're 11-1 with our quarterback. 11-1. And we’re Big 12 champs. We should be treated like an 11-1 team."
It all depends on what the committee values most. Will the committee value ASU's recent string of excellent play in a harder conference? Or will they value Boise State's 11-game win streak? We shall see.
READ MORE: ASU crowned Big 12 champion after blowout win over Iowa State 45-19
4 seed
If the committee picks Boise State over ASU and ASU over Clemson, which seems to be the most likely scenario the way things sit, the Sun Devils would receive the No. 4 seed. With the No. 4 seed, the Sun Devils would still receive a first-round bye and await the winner of the No. 5/No. 12 game.
5-12 seed
This spot is unlikely after SMU's loss, but let's play devil's advocate. If the committee, for whatever reason, values this Clemson win enough to jump them over the Sun Devils, it pushes ASU into the 5-12 range.
This is where things are extremely unclear, and a lot of questions would have to be asked. How many teams ranked ahead of them that didn't play this week does No.15 ASU jump? ASU has an argument against a lot of them. There are some question marks about the teams in front of them.
Georgia winning the SEC Championship with a backup quarterback could raise some questions about Texas. The Longhorns have been underwhelming. They have one of the weakest schedules in the SEC, having zero wins against currently ranked opponents.
The committee is also not a fan of backup quarterbacks (see Florida State last year), so the Longhorns losing to one could send them down pretty far. Would it be far enough for ASU to jump them? It's very unlikely, but the slim possibility is one to think about.
Does the committee raise ASU enough for the Sun Devils to host a playoff game as a No. 5-8 seed? Also unlikely. With the hypothetical Clemson jump, ASU likely wouldn’t reach higher than No. 11. Thankfully, all of this confusing mess likely won't happen, and the Sun Devils will probably be a top-four team in the playoff.
No matter what seed they get on Sunday, the Sun Devils are playing some of their best football of the season at the best time. They continue to exceed so many expectations. Mark your calendars Sun Devil fans, and have fun on the ride.
Editor's note: The views and opinions presented in this article are the author's and do not imply any endorsement from The State Press or its editors.
Edited by Henry Smardo, Sophia Braccio and Natalia Jarrett.
Reach the reporter at jkmccar2@asu.edu and follow @jackmccarthyasu on X.
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Jack is a junior studying sports journalism with a minor in business. This is his first semester with The State Press. He has also worked at his high school paper.
