Luck has given ASU fans false hope that the team's dark days will finally end in the Big 12, but things are about to take a turn for the worse.
The Sun Devil seasonal doom and gloom has subsided as the team is 3-0 for the first time since 2019. However, ASU's unimpressive nonconference play will not lead to success in the rebuilt Big 12.
ASU was picked to finish last in the Big 12 preseason poll with an over-under of 5.5 wins by PFF. Now, the Sun Devils only need a few more wins to secure a bowl game.
"We added a few players, we've played a few games," head coach Kenny Dillingham said at a press conference. "That's really about it, but we're the same team that just needs to get better and better."
Confidence is key in college football but ASU fans need to come back down to Earth before popping any champagne. The team's 3-0 record is far less impressive when placed under the microscope.
For one, Wyoming is far from the team it was last year that went 9-4 en route to a bowl win. The Cowboys are currently in an 0-3 downward spiral for the first time to start a season since 2015.
READ MORE: ASU football dominates Wyoming in season opener
ASU's first win in program history against an SEC team is not even that impressive. Mississippi State is the furthest thing from a top dog in college football's best conference.
The Bulldogs marched into Tempe 1-0 after a blowout buy game against Eastern Kentucky. Even Mississippi State, picked to finish second to last in the SEC, should beat a no-name FCS school only playing the Bulldogs for a quick buck.
Two unimpressive week-one winners met in the desert heat while the nation watched on ESPN. ASU somehow turned a 27-point lead into a nail-biter as Mississippi State outscored the Sun Devils by 20 in the second half.
"I mean in the first half we outscored them... I would love to see how many Jeff Lebby offenses have been held to that net of yards and points in his career because that's one of the best offensive coaches in college football," Dillingham said after the game.
READ MORE: Sun Devils football gets first SEC win over Mississippi State
The box score from Mississippi State's game a week later can show Dillingham an outstanding performance. In that game, Toledo crushed the Bulldogs in a 41-17 rout far more impressive than the Sun Devil's near-catastrophic collapse.
The Sun Devils' only noteworthy win came against Texas State on the road. The Sun Devils completed a comeback after the Bobcats built a 14-point lead early in the first half. Credit to ASU's defense for forcing three turnovers to compensate for the offense's sluggish play when Dillingham couldn’t rely on senior running back Cam Skattebo.
"I wouldn't necessarily say that it's everything that we train on, but sometimes you just get lucky with stuff like that," said redshirt freshman quarterback Sam Leavitt.
READ MORE: ASU stuns Texas State in back-and-forth brawl
The Big 12 season is the first true test of a team many picked to fail. All but one of the Sun Devils' nine conference opponents boast a winning record, five are undefeated and three are currently ranked in the top 25. ASU is 1-9 in its last 10 meetings against ranked opponents, but they are still filled with confidence after the nonconference stretch.
"We've won in every type of situation," said redshirt sophomore receiver Jordyn Tyson. "We've been down and came back, we've been up and had someone else come back, and we've blown a team out. So we won in every way, so I feel like we can win in every way."
The ASU home schedule is challenging with matchups against undefeated BYU, UCF and Utah. The Sun Devils will also face an uphill battle in road matchups against Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas State and UA.
"I think that the exciting part about joining the Big 12 is the environments that we play in," Dillingham said.
Dillingham's confidence is inspiring but history isn't on his side. The last six schools to join the Big 12 failed to record a winning conference record in their first season and just two managed to win four of nine games.
One can hope but the Sun Devils aren't going to be making history this season as the Big 12 will prove too big a test for the underperforming program.
Editor's note: The opinions presented in this column are the author's and do not imply any endorsement from The State Press or its editors.
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Edited by Henry Smardo, Sophia Ramirez and Madeline Schmitke.
Reach the reporter at jcbarron@asu.edu and follow @jackcbarron on X.
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Jack is a senior studying sports journalism. This is his fourth semester with The State Press. He has also worked at Radio Sucesos and XPR Sport Experience in Argentina.
