Who: Arizona State vs. California
Where: Sun Devil Stadium
When: 7 p.m. PT on ESPN2
Series: Cal leads 17-15 all-time
Last meeting: Golden Bears won 48-46 in Berkeley on Nov. 28, 2015
If you thought last year’s matchup between ASU and Cal was going to be a toss-up, imagine the angst in Las Vegas about setting the over/under for this week’s contest in Tempe at a mere 83 points.
The Sun Devils (3-0) slipped three and a half points in six hours on Sunday — from – 6.5 to just field goal-favorites at home. On Monday, ASU gained back a point to move to – 4, according to SportsLine.
This projected edge over the Golden Bears (2-1) may appear trivial to those not involved in the world of sports betting. That said, the reasons for this changing forecast are indicative of ASU’s performance leading up to its Pac-12 opener this Saturday. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives ASU a 55.7 percent chance to win its first conference game of the season.
Pessimists will point to the 55 points given up to Texas Tech and tackling issues from that game that resurfaced in a four-point road win over UTSA. Recency bias, much? What about about ASU’s 2-4 record in home Pac-12 openers since 2010, including losses to UCLA in 2014 and USC in 2015 by a combined 63 points?
The head-to-head history with Cal doesn’t favor the Sun Devils, either. The Golden Bears have won 9 of the last 12 meetings since 2000, including a four-game win streak in that span.
Then there’s senior quarterback Davis Webb, the No. 2 passer in the country with 1,359 yards, and the nation’s leading receiver in redshirt junior Chad Hansen (546 yards) — the next closest in the country is East Carolina’s Zay Jones with 443.
The duo of Webb and Hansen shredded then-No. 11 Texas, linking up for two touchdowns and 196 yards. Factor in ASU’s pass defense allowing the most yards in the country per game at 379.3, and the Sun Devils could be in for yet another exhausting night in the secondary.
Webb defeated ASU in the 2013 Holiday Bowl as a Texas Tech Red Raider, but ASU also just beat Texas Tech and junior Patrick Mahomes — the only quarterback with more yards than Webb.
ASU head coach Todd Graham said that the schemes of Cal and Texas Tech are similar.
"(Webb) is a very good quarterback," Graham said. "He's very difficult to sack, you can tell he's really gelled with their players."
There aren’t too many wrinkles that differentiate Cal’s offense from Texas Tech’s, though junior running back Vic Enwere will be a factor after reeling off 110 yards on 18 carries and scoring two touchdowns against Texas.
Senior running back Khalfani Muhammad is adept at catching passes out of the backfield and will provide leadership for a team with several true freshmen skill players.
"I was very impressed with the physicality and the heart that they showed against Texas," Graham said. "They're very well coached on special teams and on offense and defense."
Among them is freshman receiver Melquise Stovall, one of six Cal wideouts with at least 100 yards through three games. Like Mahomes, Webb spreads the ball around, and has found a way to get 15 different Golden Bears at least one reception thus far.
Meanwhile, Cal has the third-worst rushing defense in college football, allowing 296.3 yards per game on the ground.
This is a prime matchup for the two-headed monster of junior running backs Kalen Ballage and Demario Richard to exploit after San Diego State senior Donnel Pumphrey pummeled the Golden Bears for 281 yards on 29 carries, racking up three touchdowns in a 45-40 win.
"Most of my runs come after contact," Richard said. "I don't shy away from anybody ... Whoever feels like they've got the balls to step in the gap, they're going to feel something."
Ballage said that if teams decide to load the box against the Sun Devils, ASU will be able to capitalize.
"That means we'll have something else," Ballage said. "Maybe someone over the top or over the middle."
If this year’s meeting is anything like last year’s intense finish, there will be few dull moments for the Sun Devil Stadium scoreboard operators. In ASU’s regular season finale, the Sun Devils and Golden Bears combined for more than 1,200 yards of total offense, and senior kicker Zane Gonzalez notched a school-record six field goals.
But after Gonzalez watched junior kicker Matt Anderson nail the game-winner for Cal as time expired from 39 yards out, the Pac-12’s career leader in points will be ready to rise to the occasion if his name is called.
Reach the reporter at smodrich@asu.edu or follow @StefanJModrich on Twitter.
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