It’s April again, which of course can only mean one thing: Baseball is back. After the long winter, we now are treated to six months of America’s original pastime.
This season looks to be a wild one, with a clear favorite (the Chicago Cubs) hoping to end a 107-year title drought and scores of other teams fighting for contention. It should be a great season.
Here are my predictions for the final standings of each league, as well as playoff and World Series picks:
American League (power ranking for league in parentheses)
East:
- Boston Red Sox (3)
- Toronto Blue Jays (4)
- Tampa Bay Rays (6)
- New York Yankees (8)
- Baltimore Orioles (14)
Central:
- Kansas City Royals (1)
- Cleveland Indians (7)
- Detroit Tigers (9)
- Minnesota Twins (12)
- Chicago White Sox (13)
West:
- Houston Astros (2)
- Seattle Mariners (5)
- Texas Rangers (10)
- Oakland Athletics (11)
- Los Angeles Angels (15)
Analysis: The American League looks to be as competitive as it has ever been. According to FanGraphs’ projected standings, the difference between the best team and worst is a mere 12 games, with no team winning more than 89 and no team winning fewer than 77. This paints a picture that is largely true — there are no dominant teams and there are no truly bad teams. Every team really does seem to have a shot this year, so if you’re a fan of one of these teams, you should feel confident heading into the season.
There are four AL teams that I believe are clearly better than the rest: the defending champion Royals, the resurgent Red Sox, the ascendant Astros, and the Blue Jays. The race for the final wild-card spot is wide open, but I’m leaning towards the Mariners. Very few are picking them to make the playoffs, but they made several nice, under-the-radar moves this offseason, and I think they have enough pitching to make a run. With that said, any of the remaining teams could make it — the Angels could very well make the playoffs and I wouldn’t be that surprised. So watch out: this is as unpredictable the league has ever been.
National League
East:
- New York Mets (2)
- Washington Nationals (6)
- Miami Marlins (8)
- Atlanta Braves (14)
- Philadelphia Phillies (15)
Central:
- Chicago Cubs (1)
- St. Louis Cardinals (4)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (7)
- Cincinnati Reds (10)
- Milwaukee Brewers (12)
West:
- Los Angeles Dodgers (3)
- San Francisco Giants (5)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (9)
- San Diego Padres (11)
- Colorado Rockies (13)
Analysis: A.J. Pollock’s injury for the Diamondbacks is devastating—he’s a terrific all-around player, and he’ll likely be out for the season. Unless Socrates Brito breaks out in a huge way, there’s really no replacing Pollock’s production, and it likely reduces the Diamondbacks win total by 4 wins or so. This is a team that already featured a top-heavy roster that lacked quality depth, and while they may have been able to make a run if their stars had stayed relatively healthy, they’re already off to a bad start.
Even so, the team could push .500, but that won’t be enough in the National League, where the top seven teams are arguably better than any American League team. They join the Marlins in “no-man’s land.” The teams are too talented to be bad, not talented enough to be good. Every other team in the league is truly poor, and each is virtually eliminated from playoff contention already. All of this is to say that the National League is basically the opposite of the American League—instead of league-wide mediocrity, there are some very good teams and some very bad teams, with the Diamondbacks falling somewhere in the middle.
AL Playoff Predictions
AL Wild Card Game: Mariners over Blue Jays
ALDS No. 1 seed vs. winner of wild card game: Mariners over Royals in 4 games
ALDS No. 2 seed vs. No. 3 seed: Astros over Red Sox in 5 games
ALCS: Astros over Mariners in 6 games
NL Playoff Predictions
NL Wild Card Game: Nationals over Giants
NLDS No. 1 seed vs. winner of wild card game: Nationals over Cubs in 5 games
NLDS No. 2 seed vs No. 3 seed: Mets over Dodgers in 4 games
NLCS: Mets over Nationals in 7 games
World Series Prediction: Mets over Astros in 5 games
Analysis: The Mets will do what the Royals did last season: Win the World Series after losing it the prior season. There isn’t a lot of historical precedent for results like that, but I think that this young Mets young rotation defies precedent. The Astros will definitely put up a fight, but ultimately will not be able to match the Mets’ pitching depth. As for my other surprises, they mostly come from confidence in those teams’ pitching staffs: I like the Mariners’ and Nationals’ pitching a lot, and I think they’ll be able to defeat favorites like the Royals and Cubs because of it. Neither, though, has enough offense, to ultimately reach the World Series.
So there you have it. I think the Mets will win their first World Series since 1986. But that probably won’t happen. So enjoy the season — it looks like it’ll be a great one.
Reach the reporter at bfryan@asu.edu or on Twitter @brennanryan27
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