The 88th Academy Awards are a short three months away, but the award season has officially started with the 2015 Spirit Independent Awards and The Gotham Independent Film Awards nominations announced earlier this month.
In recent years, the Oscar races started locking up concurrent with the completion of huge film festivals across the world. However, many of this year’s races are still wide open due to some of the Academy’s favorites skipping the festival circuit. David Russell’s “Joy," Quentin Tarantino’s “The Hateful Eight” and last year’s big winner, Alejandro González Iñárritu’s “The Revenant,” have all yet to premiere.
I have spent the whole year studying the films with any amount of Oscar buzz and have devised the following predictions based on Oscar history, festival buzz, the visibilities of the film, studios, talent and other factors. Here are my predictions:
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mark Ruffalo, “Spotlight”
2. Michael Keaton, “Spotlight”
3. Sylvester Stallone, "Creed"
4. Mark Rylance, “Bridge of Spies”
5. Robert De Niro, “Joy”
Until very recently, the Supporting Actor race seemed to be one between the two "Spotlight" guys. Ruffalo and Keaton have industry support and both are working strong narratives; Ruffalo has a showy role and Keaton is a well-respected veteran. However, "Creed" swung harder than many expected and Stallone delivered a grounded and paternal performance that could give the "Spotlight" boys a run for their money.
Finally, with very few reactions to "Joy," it is hard to say which of the supporting performance will gain traction, but with director David Russell's track record it is safe to expect either De Niro, Bradley Cooper or Édgar Ramiréz.
Other contenders include Tom Hardy, “The Revenant,” Jacob Tremblay, “Room,” Harvey Keitel, “Youth,” Paul Dano, “Love and Mercy” and Samuel L. Jackson, “The Hateful Eight.”
Best Supporting Actress
1. Rooney Mara, “Carol”
2. Alicia Vikander, “The Danish Girl”
3. Kate Winslet, “Steve Jobs”
4. Isabella Rossellini, “Joy”
5. Jane Fonda, “Youth"
Leading the Best Supporting Actress race are two lead performances defrauded into the category of supporting. Mara and Vikander both have the most screentime in their respective films, but play the more submissive roles. The same could be said about Patricia Arquette, who won last year for "Boyhood," so the Academy doesn't mind rewarding large roles in the supporting category. On the opposite side of the spectrum is Jane Fonda, who's performance in "Youth" is essentially a cameo with less than five minutes of screentime.
Again, no one can snatch acting nominations like David Russell, so a space must be saved for the large array of supporting women in "Joy." Rossellini reportedly has the most screentime of the ladies and plays the most villainous role.
Other contenders include Jennifer Jason Leigh, “The Hateful Eight,” Diane Ladd, “Joy,” Elizabeth Banks, “Love and Mercy” and Rachel McAdams, “Spotlight.”
Best Actor
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Revenant"
2. Steve Carell, “The Big Short”
3. Michael Fassbender, “Steve Jobs”
4. Michael Caine, “Youth”
5. Eddie Redmayne, “The Danish Girl"
This year’s Best Actor race is very dire, which should finally lead to a much anticipated Oscar for DiCaprio. “The Revenant” has screened for the Producer’s Guild, Screen Actors Guild and New York film critics and each of these organizations has had strong reactions to DiCaprio’s mostly mute, transformative performance. However, this will be seen as a career award honoring him for past performances as his role in “The Revenant” is the opposite of Academy fodder.
Outside of DiCaprio, the race is very fluid with few roles that will elicit much passion. On the outside looking in are Matt Damon for “The Martian,” Johnny Depp for “Black Mass” and Ian McKellen for “Mr. Holmes.”
Best Actress
1. Brie Larson, “Room”
2. Jennifer Lawrence, “Joy”
3. Cate Blanchett, “Carol”
4. Saoirse Ronan, “Brooklyn”
5. Charlotte Rampling, “45 Years”
Of all of the races, Best Actress seems the most locked down for nominees. Rampling is likely the most divisive pick, but she has the capacity to pull a small indie nomination like Marion Cotillard last year. “45 Years” is one of the best-received films of the year, her performance is a masterclass in subtlety and she has never received a nomination despite a lifetime of presence in European cinema.
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Blanchett’s and Lawrence’s chances are hindered by their recent wins. The Academy has shown time and time again that they do not feel the need to reward the same talent in quick succession. Despite that, Lawrence could coattail a win if “Joy” becomes the front-runner for Best Picture and Best Director and she remains visible throughout the season.
Carey Mulligan for “Suffragette” and Lily Tomlin for “Grandma” could pick up some precursor awards and shake up the race.
Best Picture
Between five and 10 nominees will be selected based on very specific and complicated statutes. Since this new rule was established in 2010, there have been either eight or nine nominees. This year I predict nine.
1. “Joy”
2. “Spotlight”
3. “The Big Short”
4. “Carol”
6. “Brooklyn”
7. “The Revenant”
Predicting “Joy,” which hasn't premiered yet, is a risky move, but director David Russell is known as one of the most overdue and talented directors in Hollywood. His last three films have earned a total of 25 nominations, a nearly unprecedented statistic.
“The Big Short” is another divisive choice considering the late release date and tepid response out of AFI. However, if reactions out of industry screenings for the Screen Acting and Producer’s Guild are any indication, “The Big Short” will gain a lot of passion from the Academy. Director Adam McKay, actor Steve Carell and actor and producer Brad Pitt have all been working the campaign trail and have been very visible in their support of the film.
If “Joy” doesn’t pan out, then expect “Spotlight” to be the Best Picture winner come February. The buzz and passion are strong, the cast is popular and the topic is Academy friendly. While the filmmaking can be considered pedestrian and not as artistic as films like “Carol” or “Brooklyn,” “Spotlight” would be a choice in line with previous Academy choices like 2013 Best Picture winner “Argo.”
Other contenders for Best Picture are “Inside Out,” “Room,” “Mad Max: Fury Road,” “The Hateful Eight,” “Youth,” “Steve Jobs” and “Son of Saul.”
Best Director
1. David Russell, “Joy”
2. Ridley Scott, “The Martian”
3. Thomas McCarthy, “Spotlight”
4. Alejandro González Iñárritu, “The Revenant”
5. Todd Haynes, “Carol”
The Best Director race is perhaps the messiest of the year, especially if “Joy” is received as one of David Russell’s lesser endeavors. Russell’s narrative and industry clout are very strong and the Academy seems ready to reward him as long as he delivers. “Spotlight” should be safe for a nomination, but the director’s branch could skip over the young director who recently bombed with “The Cobbler.”\
Ridley Scott seems like the next logical choice if “Joy” doesn’t work out. He has directed more than 30 films including Best Picture winner “Gladiator,” but has yet to take home a statue for his direction.
Iñárritu would likely be a front-runner if he hadn’t won for “Birdman” last year, as no director has ever won for back to back films. In fact, less than a handful of directors have ever been nominated the year after a win. The strong early industry reactions and challenging shoot should give him a strong enough narrative to secure a nomination despite these statistics
After “Foxcatcher” missed Best Picture, but managed a Best Director nod last year, anything seems possible in this category. George Miller for “Mad Max: Fury Road,” Steven Spielberg for “Bridge of Spies,” Adam McKay for “The Big Short” and John Crowley for “Brooklyn” all stand a chance.
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Reach the reporter at tanner.stechnij@asu.edu or follow @tannerstechnij on Twitter.
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