Coach Todd Graham answers questions after a loss to Texas Tech at the 2013 Holiday Bowl. (Photo by Andrew Ybanez)
The long wait is over.
After all these years, there’s a college football playoff, and the 12-person committee unveiled its inaugural ranking Tuesday.
For weeks, media speculation ran rampant with how the committee would vote.
The poll often cited with the most influence (and the most coverage) is the AP poll, which is mostly composed of college football beat writers, columnists and national reporters. There’s also the Coaches’ Poll, which was a component in the old BCS era.
However, after the committee’s first ballot, it’s clear members can disregard outside influence and create an independent ranking.
Among the top 25 teams, the average AP team was ranked 0.72 slots higher or lower than the average team in the Coaches’ Poll. The difference between common teams in the AP and college football playoff (1.58) and the Coaches’ Poll and CFP (1.92) was more pronounced.
The rise of Ole Miss (+3 from AP, +5 from coaches) is subject to the most scrutiny and attention because it positions the team outside the top four in the major polls into the playoff. The main reason Ole Miss slipped from No. 3 in the main two polls to No. 7 and No. 9 respectively was because it lost last week instead of earlier in the season.
There’s hope the committee won’t suffer from the fatal poll weakness of punishing a team for losing late. Ole Miss and Alabama (ranked three spots lower than in both AP and Coaches) are both one-loss teams with similar résumés in the SEC West. The Rebels have the head-to-head victory, so it’s not that far-fetched to rank them ahead.
By the end of the season, we’ll find out if Ole Miss is worthy of the lofty ranking. The Rebels still play the committee’s No. 1 team in Mississippi State and No. 3 squad in Auburn. Alabama also plays both.
In punishing Ohio State and Marshall, which are both ranked lower in the committee's Top 25 than in either traditional, the committee showed it’s not going to favor teams excelling against weak competition. Ohio State's average strength of schedule rank in five of the six BCS computers is 67.6. Marshall’s average strength of schedule ranking is 123.4. There are 128 teams in the FBS.
If the season ended today, Marshall (one of three unbeaten teams) would not receive the automatic bid into one of six “access bowls,” much less an invitation in the playoff, because they were ranked below another "Group of Five” school.
The playoff was supposed to solve the “undefeated but no shot at a national championship” fiasco from the BCS era.
Try again.
Going back to the BCS bowl busting era, most of the qualifying schools would have needed an eight-team playoff or larger to ultimately have a shot at the playoff. There’s no guarantee the committee will produce the same rankings that the BCS did, but from its first ranking, it punishes weak strength of schedules, inherent in schools from outside the Power Five.
Still, it’s unfair for a school not to get an opportunity in the playoff if it never loses a game. Marshall (8-0) may be really good, but we might not find out.
Some other final thoughts on the initial ranking:
- ASU fans, don’t fret about being ranked No. 14 in the poll, below 11 one-loss teams. If the Sun Devils win out, they should catapult into the top four with a strong body of work (including wins over Notre Dame, USC, Arizona, Utah and Stanford, the defending Pac-12 North champ). But that’s unlikely to happen (ESPN’s FPI says ASU has a 1.7 percent chance of winning out).
- It’s inconclusive how the committee views close wins or close losses, relative to the main polls. On the one hand, UCLA (ranked +3 from both AP/Coaches) has five wins by eight points or less, but LSU (-3, -2) has three wins by less than a touchdown. Without being in the room, it’s hard to gauge the committee’s logic, but there are obviously more factors in play.
- There is a lot of season to be played. The rankings are fluid. Auburn made the national championship and was No. 11 in last year’s first BCS ranking, which was released around this time.
Reach the columnist at jmjanss1@asu.edu or follow him on Twitter @jjanssen11
Like State Press Sports on Facebook or follow them on Twitter @statepresssport
