Can you see yourself using your current social networking apps in five years?
I can say I see myself using my Facebook in a more conservative and mature manner, using Instagram when I am able to travel more after graduating and Twitter to keep up with Kanye West.
But I can't say I can see Snapchat lasting long enough to not regret its decision to turn down both $3 billion and $4 billion cash offers from Facebook and Google, respectively.
That is the value of three Instagrams (bought for $1 billion), three Tumblrs ($1.1 billion) or half Groupon ($6 billion).
How in the world did that happen?
Do the great minds behind Snapchat see their app in a permanent spot on the home screen of your smart phone, a time-sensitive photo messaging system? It’s outrageously stupid decision, but I understand it from their perspective.
Maybe it's the "Facebook advantage" that they have where the difficulty of emulating this type of product would require constant interaction with the community of your own peers.
Look at past successful apps and you might see why the Stanford creation is holding off from an easy payday.
You can build a Snapchat alternative, but can you convince all of your friends on Snapchat to move over and juggle with two of the same product? It's better to just deal with one. Facebook, making use of its established user base, released a failed Snapchat-clone of its own, Poke, on iOS. Just imagine a brand new developer trying to claim territory.
Vine was an increasingly popular app, but its growth was stunted due to the already-popular Instagram coming out with its own video feature.
Groupon famously turned down its record $6 billion offer from Google just two years ago. But Groupon is just a coupon website. How difficult would it be for a copycat service, such as LivingSocial, to compile different offers to attract new customers?
The only obstacle for Snapchat is its own product, whether its teen-centric demographic grows up and look toward the next trending app or Snapchat’s developers alienate their users with intrusive advertisements like all good mobile apps do. The seesaw task at hand for them now is how to increase their demographic age range and interest the older generation, all while not losing its young base.
Maybe I am absolutely wrong. Maybe five years from now, everyone of all ages will be about Snapchatting "selfies" to their friends. Maybe 20 years down the road, our children’s social networking will run through only Snapchat, as I look back at what I wrote in The State Press's online archives and wonder to myself, “How did I get everything so wrong?”
Until that day, I just don't see it. And just like the app's signature feature, in time those multibillion-dollar offers won't come back.
Reach the columnist at vqnguye1@asu.edu or follow him on Twitter @taequangdoh.
