It seems that NBC has not been learning its lessons from the late night wars of the past 20 years. I warn this as I see a third late night war approaching. Jimmy Fallon is now set to replace Jay Leno on "The Tonight Show" by the fall of 2014, despite Leno's positive ratings.
NBC’s biggest error is inconsistency. In 1992, everyone was expecting David Letterman to take over “The Tonight Show” when Johnny Carson left, since Letterman had proven his worth by hosting “Late Night” for 10 years airing right after “The Tonight Show.” NBC then picked occasional guest host Jay Leno to be the new permanent host. As a result, Letterman left the network, and his “Late Night” show was given to Conan O'Brien. Letterman started a brand new show on CBS called “The Late Show” that has lasted to this day.
Say what you will about Leno's humor, but he and O'Brien brought home the bacon in the ratings. Then 2005 came around and O'Brien had really proved himself to the point that he was getting offers from rival networks to leave NBC. O'Brien did not want to stay without a major promotion. Namely, “The Tonight Show.” NBC did not want to create another Letterman-like rival, but it did not want to lose Leno. It found a way to have its cake and eat it too. It put O'Brien on “The Tonight Show” and moved Leno into prime time.
NBC was disappointed by the ratings and tried to move the shows back closer to their previous time slots without changing the names. This was not the promotion O'Brien was wanted. He left the network to start another rival talk show on TBS. Leno returned to “The Tonight Show” and beat Letterman in the ratings again like he had never left. But both lost viewers to the new Conan show on TBS.
Are you seeing a pattern here? NBC's impulses have resulted in creating more competition and ratings fissure for themselves. For the first time in the network's history, it is 5th in the ratings behind Univision. Leno has been joking about those ratings on the air, and NBC executives are furious with him. Despite consistently beating his competition in the ratings, the suits are looking to replace Leno with Fallon by moving production of “The Tonight Show” to New York in 2014.
Its reasoning is irrational. When Leno first went up against Letterman in the ratings in 1992 it took till 1995 for Leno to win. It pulled the plug on “The Tonight Show” with Conan O'Brien after only seven months due to the ratings that really weren't bad, just lower. It did not give him a chance to establish himself like they gave Leno a chance.
Now the network is trying to force Leno out under the pretense that it is trying to appeal to a younger demographic, despite the fact that none of the other hosts wrap up the youth ratings like Leno does. It had that with O'Brien, and it gave it up for higher overall ratings. What's the deal? It can't make up its mind!
Don't get me wrong: Fallon is funny. But he is closer to O'Brien in the humor department than Leno. Mainstream America could give him the same lukewarm response in the ratings. By then, Leno will have been yanked around enough that he most likely won't return to NBC, let alone “The Tonight Show” under any circumstances. Word has it that the Fox Network is courting him when his contract ends in 2014. The fissure continues. Although, Fox's track record with talk shows is not the greatest.
The tax breaks that New York is setting up show that the plans are firmly in motion. At this point all I can say is whatever NBC decides, it needs to stick to it and not chicken out. Give Fallon proper time to build his new show. Making business decisions based on irrational panic instead of rational patience only causes your enemies to multiply.
Reach the blogger at crgavin@asu.edu or follow him at @coltongavin.
