The big news in Republican primary politics this week was the sinking of Herman Cain’s campaign and the continuing rise of Newt Gingrich’s.
Ginger White, yet another Herman Cain accuser, emerged on Tuesday, claiming that she and the one-time GOP front-runner had been having an affair for the past 13 years.
This, along with the sexual harassment claims, spells disaster for the Cain campaign. Presumably, the Gingrich campaign will receive a boost as former Cain supporters look to join forces with the most viable anti-Romney candidate.
With his sudden rise in the polls and consistently impressive debate performances, Newt Gingrich seems a formidable opponent to Mitt Romney indeed.
But in all likelihood, Gingrich will prove to be yet another flash in the pan before most Republicans, desperate to beat Obama, fall in line behind Romney — even if they have to hold their noses while doing so.
Upon closer examination it seems that even this week’s developments favor Romney in the long run.
Cain’s undoing was largely the result of alleged failings in his personal life. An increasingly personalized campaign can only hurt Gingrich as the media and fellow candidates train their attention on him.
With two failed marriages and an admitted affair in his background, Gingrich does not enjoy a particularly wholesome reputation. His greatest strength is his persuasive command of policy issues and any distraction from that can only damage him.
Whether personal matters should factor into presidential races is irrelevant; the fact is that they usually do, and certainly will this election cycle.
President Obama is eminently beatable, and he knows it.
According to the most recent polling data from Gallup, his approval rating remains at a very low 43 percent. Especially notable is his 10 percent drop in approval among “pure independents,” from 40 percent to 30 percent.
Obama’s best strategy in the general election is going to be demonizing his opponent, a task that will be made much easier if he faces Gingrich rather than the apparently squeaky-clean Romney.
Republicans would be wise not to overlook one of Romney’s greatest strengths: He’s quite the Goody Two-Shoes.
Another wrinkle for Gingrich is that, under increasing scrutiny, it remains to be seen whether he can maintain his popularity among anti-establishment, Tea Party-type Republicans who are hungry for a political outsider.
Perhaps foreshadowing his line of attack, Romney painted Gingrich as a “career politician” on Tuesday. Indeed, Gingrich’s 20 years in Congress and the large sums of money he made working the Hill afterward make him an unlikely candidate for enthusiastic support from populists who lament the status quo in Washington, DC.
Finally, Gingrich is ill equipped to attack Romney over his Obamacare-esque Massachusetts health insurance mandate.
Gingrich founded the Center for Health Transformation, which supported individual mandates at the state level for people earning more than $50,000 a year.
Of course he has since changed his tone, but Romney’s two greatest weaknesses are Romneycare and the perception that he is a flip-flopper. An inability to fully capitalize on those weaknesses is a definite liability.
There is much for a conservative like myself to like about Newt Gingrich and it isn’t inconceivable that he will be our next president.
But just like all the anti-Romneys before him, the greatest challenge will be matching Mitt’s steady hand and cool head.
Reach the columnist at dcolthar@asu.edu
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