Arizonans can expect slight employment growth by the end of next year, according to an employment forecast released Thursday by the Arizona Department of Commerce.
The report said the projected job losses for Arizona will decrease from a projected nearly 180,000 jobs lost in 2009 to about 17,500 estimated jobs lost in 2010.
Jack York, senior economist for the state commerce department, said there are some indicators of improvement in Arizona’s economy.
“Expect to see slowing losses and a gradual improving economy,” York said.
Tim James, an economics professor at ASU, said jobs are a lagging indicator of how the economy is doing.
“People lose their jobs after a downturn has started, and people get new jobs after the upturn has started,” he said.
A projected decrease in job losses is one of multiple signs that indicate the economy has begun to turn around, but it will take some time before people start hiring again, James said.
“There’s going to be a continued rise in unemployment for the foreseeable future, and then after that, things will then swing around because people will start hiring again,” he said.
The forecast says the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act has contributed to the forecast decrease in job losses by generating local business.
“Those effects are being seen now in terms of people increasing their spending on cars. And tax revenues, as a result, are rising because of [the stimulus money],” James said. “That’s definitely one of the positive influences, which has reduced the effects of the recession.”
A buildup in inventory has factored into the projected decrease in job losses, the forecast said.
“People are starting to build up inventory again, having run it down to almost zero,” James said. “When things start to improve, [businesses] start to stock up on inventory in expectation that people will want more of their product.”
The economies of major U.S. trading partners, including China, France and Germany, have shown growth, resulting in increased U.S. export figures, according to the forecast.
James said trade is always good in a global economy.
“Basically, there’s a benefit when those economies start to do better in terms of us being able to export goods to those countries,” he said. “Everybody benefits as a result of the global economy generally improving.”
Andrew Rigazio, an accounting and finance senior, said the economic recovery of other countries is nearly as important as the recovery of the U.S.
“Because this was a global recession, it’s going to be a global recovery,” he said.
It’s a good sign that expected job losses in 2010 are much smaller than those in 2009, Rigazio said, especially as he prepares to decide whether he’ll enter the job market or work on his master’s degree after he graduates.
“A sign of recovery is definitely a good thing for me looking for a job coming out of college,” Rigazio said. “If there are jobs out there, I definitely want to take advantage, especially now when we’re entering a recovery mode and things are going to start looking up.”
