With time until the presidential election winding down, Republican hopeful John McCain holds a lead over Democratic rival Barack Obama in Arizona, according to a Cronkite/Eight Poll released Tuesday night.
The poll shows McCain leading by seven points, with 45 percent to Obama’s 38 percent, among registered Arizona voters. Independent candidate Ralph Nader received support from one percent of those polled, while sixteen percent were undecided.
Obama gained some ground among Arizona voters in September, as he lessened McCain’s lead in Arizona by three percent from August.
An August Cronkite/Eight Poll had McCain leading Obama 40 percent to 30 percent, with 27 percent undecided.
Poll director Bruce Merrill said the tightening race in Arizona is not particularly surprising because Obama has picked up three to four points nationally in the last month.
Arizona registered voters were highly polarized with their choice of candidates. Eighty-one percent of McCain supporters and 86 percent of Obama supporters reported feeling very strongly about their candidate.
One-third of McCain supporters said they support the senator because of his qualifications and experience in government.
Twenty-eight percent of Obama supporters said they want to see change in Washington.
Merrill said poll results showed reaction to vice presidential selections was more or less evenly divided along party lines.
“In America, we vote for president, not vice president,” he said.
“People don’t really see either vice presidential candidate as a major candidate.”
Voters were also divided on the selection of vice presidential candidates, according to the poll.
Half of registered voters said McCain’s running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, helps him in the race, while 34 percent said she hurts him. Forty-three percent said Sen. Joseph Biden helps Obama and 30 percent said he hurts Obama.
Arizonans were also divided on Palin’s ability to take over as president, as 48 percent were confident in her abilities while 46 were not very confident.
Voters showed much higher confidence in Biden, with 70 percent saying they had confidence in his abilities to take over and 24 percent saying they had little confidence.
“It just puts into perspective the importance of the debate Thursday night,” Merrill said.
He said Thursday’s vice presidential debate might be the most highly watched debate in history. Palin’s performance in the debate is crucial, and if she does well, it could have a significant effect on the outcome of the election, Merrill said.
He said vice presidential selection does not make or break the election for either candidate, but McCain’s medical history makes his selection more important.
Forty percent of those voting for McCain said his selection of Palin played a role in their support for him, while 38 percent reported that Biden played a role in their support for Obama.
When asked who would bring about real change in Washington, 43 percent said the Obama-Biden ticket would do so, while 34 percent said the McCain-Palin ticket would.
Forty-three percent said the McCain-Palin ticket is best equipped to address the current economic problems, while 38 percent said the Obama-Biden ticket is best equipped.
The poll also found Arizona voters were divided on the $700 billion bailout proposal, with 31 percent saying they supported the bill, 39 percent opposing it, and 30 percent undecided.
Forty-nine percent said they would vote for Proposition 102, which would amend the Arizona constitution to define marriage as between one man and one woman, while upholding a ban on same-sex marriage. Forty-two percent said they would vote against it and nine percent were undecided.
On Proposition 202, which would suspend or revoke licenses to businesses that knowingly employ illegal immigrants, 63 percent of voters said they would vote for the proposition, 19 said they would vote against it, and 18 were undecided.
The poll was conducted by Channel 8 (KAET) and ASU’s Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication.
The poll has a sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, with 38 percent of respondents Republicans, 35 percent Democrats and 27 percent independent.
Reach the reporter at adam.sneed@asu.edu.
