If the presidential election were held today, President Bush would beat Democratic candidate John Kerry in Arizona, according to a poll released Tuesday.
Forty-seven percent of voters said they would probably vote for Bush while 39 percent said they would vote for Kerry. Fourteen percent were undecided, according to the poll, conducted by KAET-TV/Channel 8 and the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication.
"Bush is leading but it is still not outside of the what we call a statistical dead heat," said KAET-ASU poll director Bruce Merrill.
Pollsters asked 400 voters from across the state who they would probably vote for in the coming presidential election.
The poll had a sampling error of 4.9 percent.
Merrill, a professor at the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication, said each candidate has gone up by a few points every month but it's still a close race.
But the poll found that among voters with the highest probability of voting, those who voted in the previous election and planned to vote again this year, the race tightened: Forty-five percent chose Bush and 42 percent chose Kerry with 13 percent undecided.
The latest poll showed that in the last 30 days, Bush's support has increased in Arizona.
In a poll conducted by KAET-ASU in July, 42 percent chose Kerry and 41 percent chose Bush. Seventeen percent said they were undecided.
Bush's overall job performance as president also increased in the latest poll to 51 percent, up from 47 percent in July's poll.
In that poll, 43 percent said they disapproved of Bush's overall job performance and six percent said they had no opinion.
"The strongest predictor of who wins the election when you have an incumbent president is the approval rating of the president a month before the election," Merrill said.
The latest poll also found that 86 percent of Bush's supporters and 94 percent of Kerry's supporters said they were "pretty firm" in their support for their candidate.
When the undecided voters in that poll were asked which candidate they were leaning toward, 53 percent chose Bush and 47 percent chose Kerry.
Bush's increasing support in the state seems to largely come from registered Independents, according to the latest poll.
Fourteen percent of Republicans in the August poll said they would cross over and vote for Kerry. The same percentage of Democrats said they would choose Bush. Independents chose Bush by a two-to-one margin 52 percent to 26 percent.
Merrill said the race comes down to how well the campaigns persuade voters.
"With Arizona being a battleground state, we will definitely see more of the candidates and their staffs in Arizona."
On-campus political clubs are doing their best to attract voters for their candidates.
The Young Democrats and the College Republicans have been at tables in front of the Memorial Union trying to get students involved.
Chris Moysset, president of the Young Democrats, said they are pushing a vote and register drive on and off campus. The group is also pushing a "Get out the Vote" campaign focusing on mailing votes.
"The goal is to get as many students involved in the club as well as the upcoming election," Moysset said.
Reach the reporter at laosamoa.poasa@asu.edu.
