More than 3,000 students will graduate this month from ASU, but economists said Wednesday that they could face uncertainty when looking for post-graduation employment.
The 40th annual Bank One Economic Forecast Luncheon, held at the Phoenix Civic Plaza and hosted by ASU's W. P. Carey School of Business, welcomed top Arizona politicians, University officials and economists.
The group spoke on the state of Arizona's economy after a year that saw the passage of Medicare legislation and war expenses.
"I think things are going to be moderately better," said Lee McPheters, director of the Bank One Economic Outlook Center, a research facility of the business school. McPheters also serves as the school's associate dean.
"For those people that are hoping to go into telecommunications, perhaps operations, jobs related to engineering, manufacturing, there is still a cloud over the economy," he said, "but I think this is going to be a better year for graduates than last year, both in Arizona and nationally."
Anthony Chan, Bank One Investment Advisors' chief economist and senior managing director, spoke about a recent employment study that broke the population into three groups: ages 20-24, ages 25-54 and ages 55 and older.
"What I find is that typically through a recession, employers go with more experienced cohorts; these are the 25-54-year-olds and 55-plus, and so their unemployment rates, relative to national unemployment rates improve ... while the younger cohorts don't do as well," he said.
Tempe Mayor Neil Giuliano was a guest at the luncheon but did not participate in the event. He said students are now starting to find work earlier and are not waiting until they graduate.
"The rising cost of education will mean that more and more students will be working while they are in school," Giuliano said. "The notion of being a full-time student only living on campus and not working, I think, is something of the past."
President Michael Crow said ASU students are strong, tough and not "knocked down very easily."
"Eighty-seven percent of the graduates of Arizona State University have a job, another 10 percent are in school," Crow added. "Ninety-seven percent of Arizona State University graduates are presently gainfully employed or in graduate school. That's huge."
In Arizona, more than 25,000 jobs have been filled in the past 12 months. Some of those fields that have seen the most jobs are construction and health care.
But, McPheters said, "we are still losing jobs in Arizona in manufacturing ... right now, that is the major cloud over Arizona."
Still, McPheters remains optimistic that the job growth will continue into next year and produce a record number of new jobs.
"We are expecting that 2004, the year ahead, will bring the best growth we've seen in Arizona in the past four years," he said. "We're looking for about 78,000 new jobs in the state; that would be about 3.4-percent job growth."
Reach the reporter at michael.miklofsky@asu.edu.
